I would never have believed in my teenage years that I’d follow global politics and economics as closely as I do now. I’m sure my Business Studies teacher would be equally shocked especially considering her reaction when I actually passed my exams. Yet here we are.
And dare I say it but I called this a few weeks back, I mentioned that the UK should brace itself for a mini Americanisation sweep. President Trump is all about business, and his tariffs? They’re leverage. His goal? To entice international companies to relocate to the US. But that’s not the only play. There’s a very real possibility that a US-UK trade deal will materialise before the end of the year. And if that happens, brace yourselves, because it could trigger a ripple effect that changes the economic game for small UK businesses.
A potential trade deal with Russia also means opportunity to leverage trade routes. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is fast becoming a significant shipping lane, and that means the dynamics of global import costs will shift. If the NSR takes centre stage, importing costs from the Middle East will rise, putting further pressure on the EU. And what happens then? The EU might try to dangle the “rejoin” carrot in front of the UK, hoping economic woes will drive us back into the fold. Trump, however, will likely throw us a lifeline in the form waiving UK tariffs and offering incentives to keep us firmly in the US trade sphere.
So, what does all this mean for UK businesses? For a start, we need to pay attention. The potential for a mini boom period is very real. If trade barriers ease and US investment increases, there could be a wave of new opportunities, particularly for industries aligned with US trade interests. Manufacturing, tech, finance, even ecommerce, all stand to benefit if UK businesses position themselves strategically.
Of course, none of this happens in isolation. The UK economy has been ridiculously strained since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. If a peace deal (however loosely defined) does emerge, the UK government is going to have to explain where those billions in ‘aid’ actually went. There needs to be an inquiry, and both Labour and the Conservatives will need to answer for the fiscal decisions they’ve made over the last five years. (Side note: Has Rishi Sunak officially moved to California yet, or is that still pending?)
And let’s not ignore the Elon factor. Musk and Trump are playing their own game, and Starmer will need to decide where he stands. If Starmer doesn’t align with US interests, you can bet another party will jump in to take the opportunity and the public, weary of economic strain, will likely follow suit.
So yes, all signs point to a mini economic boom. Will it last? That depends on how well businesses adapt. One thing is clear: Trump acts quickly and if you’re running a business in the UK, now is the time to start thinking about how to position yourself for the opportunities ahead.
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